Good morning. Budgets fall into two categories – reset ones, and continuity ones. Continuity budgets are more normal (or at least they were until British politics entered near-permanent crisis mode), and the reset ones tend to happen immediately after an election, or when there has been a change of chancellor. Reset budgets are more interesting (but interesting in the way journalists use the word, which is when what they really mean is ‘bad news’). This time last year Rachel Reeves thought the 2025 budget would be a continuity one, but instead it has turned into a colossal reset challenge – and, indeed, an event with the potential to make or break the Keir Starmer premiership.
Here is our overnight preview story.
The stakes are particularly high because anyone who has spent time talking to Labour MPs in recent weeks believes there is a chance that, by this time next year, Starmer could be out of office. There are good reasons why that probably won’t happen, but the idea that it might isn’t preposterous. That is one reason why there is so much at stake.
We have covered the reasons for this at length over the past few months and there is no need to rehearse them here. As for what to expect in the budget, Richard Partington has a good article here explaining the context.
And, in our First Edition newsletter, Phoebe Weston has a guide as to what to expect.
I will be focusing exclusively on the budget today (apart from covering PMQs) and Graeme Wearden, who writes the business live blog, will be joining me. As usual, we will be covering the speech minute by minute, bringing you reaction and analysis, and diving into the budget documents to find the bits Reeves did not mention in her speech.
Here is the timetable for the day.
9am: Keir Starmer chairs cabinet, where Rachel Reeves will brief colleagues on the budget.
Noon: Starmer faces Kemi Badenoch at PMQs.
12.30pm: Reeves delivers the budget. Kemi Badenoch responds on behalf of the Conservative party.
2.30pm: Richard Hughes, chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility, holds a press conference.
Afternoon: Starmer and Reeves are due to speak to staff at a hospital where they will take questions on the budget.
4pm: Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, holds a post-budget press conference.
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